
Why does it seem like so many more kids are being diagnosed with autism today than in the past? Is there really an explosion in cases—or is something else going on?
This question has sparked countless headlines, debates, and, unfortunately, a fair amount of misinformation. But understanding the real story behind the numbers is essential—not just for accuracy, but for compassion.
In this post, school nurse Holly Giovi breaks down the evolution of autism diagnoses over the past several decades. She offers a clear-eyed look at how changing definitions, increased awareness, acceptance, and expanded access to services have reshaped our understanding of what it means to be autistic. Drawing on both historical context and current data, she helps us see that what some call an “epidemic” is actually a long-overdue step toward recognizing and supporting neurodivergent individuals.
Her message is timely, thoughtful, and rooted in both professional experience and deep care for the children and families she serves. Let’s dive in.

Have you ever wondered why autism seems so much more common today than it was 40 or 50 years ago?
Here’s the truth: the numbers haven’t exploded—the definitions have.
In the 1970s and ’80s, only the most visibly affected individuals—those with profound communication difficulties or cognitive delays—were diagnosed with “infantile autism.” Everyone else? They were labeled “mentally retarded,” “emotionally disturbed,” “learning disabled,” “hyperactive,” or just “immature.” Many went undiagnosed altogether.
It wasn’t until the DSM-III (1980) that “autism” became a formal diagnosis. Then came DSM-IV (1994), which introduced Autism Spectrum Disorders—including Asperger’s and PDD-NOS. In DSM-5 (2013), these were merged into one wide-reaching diagnosis: Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), with levels 1–3 based on support needs.
This shift explains why the CDC now estimates 1 in 36 children are autistic, because we’re finally recognizing and supporting individuals we used to ignore or mislabel.
As Dr. Stephen Shore said:
“If you’ve met one person with autism, you’ve met one person with autism.”
And as the DSM-5 notes, autism is now recognized by:
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A spectrum of symptoms (social, sensory, repetitive behaviors)
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A range of intellectual abilities
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Variable language development
What does this mean?
We’re not seeing an autism epidemic—we’re seeing better awareness, better access to services, and a broader, more inclusive diagnostic net.
And those dramatic graphs? They often lump all ASD cases into one line, ignoring that only 25–30% of diagnosed individuals fall under Level 3 (requiring very substantial support). The rest are navigating the world with different needs, many of whom would’ve slipped through the cracks decades ago.
Understanding this history helps us reject fear-based narratives and embrace a more accurate, compassionate view of neurodiversity.
Conclusion:
As we move forward, it’s critical that we replace fear with facts and stigma with understanding. The rise in autism diagnoses doesn’t signal a crisis—it reflects progress. We are finally identifying and supporting individuals who were once overlooked, misdiagnosed, or misunderstood.
That’s why promises like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s to “In September, we will know what has caused the autism epidemic and we’ll be able to eliminate those exposures,” are not only misguided—they’re speculative — without scientific backing . They promote the false idea that autism is a disease to be eradicated rather than a natural variation in how people experience and interact with the world. This kind of rhetoric spreads stigma, undermines decades of scientific research, and harms the very individuals it claims to help.
By embracing the full spectrum of neurodiversity, we can create schools, communities, and systems where every child is seen, valued, and given the tools they need to thrive. As Holly reminds us, this isn’t about an “autism epidemic”—it’s about a long-overdue shift toward understanding and inclusion.
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Beautifully well written!! So clear and informative and compassionate. Hey, have you considered and OpEd? This one would be invaluable. Great job Holly! Thanks, Judy